Nrog rau kev loj hlob ntawm 5G, AI thiab kev lag luam kev ua haujlwm siab, qhov kev thov rau IC cov neeg nqa khoom, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov neeg nqa khoom ABF, tau tawg.Txawm li cas los xij, vim muaj peev xwm tsawg ntawm cov neeg muab khoom lag luam, cov khoom ntawm ABF
cov neeg nqa khoom tsis txaus thiab tus nqi tseem nce ntxiv.Kev lag luam cia siab tias qhov teeb meem nruj ntawm ABF carrier daim hlau yuav txuas ntxiv mus txog xyoo 2023. Hauv cov ntsiab lus no, plaub lub phaj loj thauj khoom hauv Taiwan, Xinxing, Nandian, Jingshuo thiab Zhending KY, tau pib ABF phaj thauj khoom nthuav dav xyoo no, nrog rau tag nrho cov peev txheej ntawm ntau tshaj NT $ 65 billion (kwv yees RMB 15.046 billion) hauv av loj thiab Taiwan cov nroj tsuag.Tsis tas li ntawd, Nyiv Ibiden thiab Shinko, Kaus Lim Kauslim Samsung lub cev muaj zog thiab Dade hluav taws xob tau nthuav dav ntxiv lawv cov peev txheej hauv ABF cov phiaj xwm.
Qhov kev thov thiab tus nqi ntawm ABF cab kuj nce siab, thiab qhov tsis txaus yuav txuas ntxiv mus txog 2023
IC substrate yog tsim los ntawm lub hauv paus ntawm HDI board (high-density interconnection circuit board), uas muaj cov yam ntxwv ntawm siab ceev, siab precision, miniaturization thiab thinness.Raws li cov khoom nruab nrab txuas cov nti thiab lub rooj sib tham hauv cov txheej txheem ntim ntim, lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb ntawm ABF cab kuj yog ua kom muaj kev sib txuas ntau dua thiab kev sib txuas ceev ceev nrog cov nti, thiab tom qab ntawd cuam tshuam nrog cov PCB loj los ntawm ntau cov kab. ntawm IC cab kuj board, uas plays lub luag hauj lwm sib txuas, thiaj li tiv thaiv kev ncaj ncees ntawm lub Circuit Court, txo cov to, kho txoj kab txoj hauj lwm Nws yog conducive rau zoo dua tshav kub dissipation ntawm lub nti los tiv thaiv cov nti, thiab txawm embed passive thiab nquag. cov khoom siv kom ua tiav qee qhov kev ua haujlwm.
Tam sim no, nyob rau hauv lub teb ntawm high-end ntim, IC carrier tau dhau los ua ib feem tseem ceeb ntawm nti ntim.Cov ntaub ntawv qhia tau hais tias tam sim no, kev faib ua feem ntawm IC cab kuj nyob rau hauv tag nrho cov nqi ntim tau txog li 40%.
Ntawm cov neeg nqa khoom IC, feem ntau yog ABF (Ajinomoto tsim cov yeeb yaj kiab) cov neeg nqa khoom thiab BT cov neeg nqa khoom raws li txoj hauv kev sib txawv xws li CLL resin system.
Ntawm lawv, ABF carrier board feem ntau yog siv rau kev siv cov chips siab xws li CPU, GPU, FPGA thiab ASIC.Tom qab cov chips no tau tsim, lawv feem ntau yuav tsum tau ntim rau ntawm ABF cab kuj board ua ntej lawv tuaj yeem sib sau ua ke ntawm PCB loj dua.Thaum ABF cov cab kuj tawm ntawm cov khoom lag luam, cov tuam txhab loj xws li Intel thiab AMD tsis tuaj yeem khiav txoj hmoo uas lub nti tsis tuaj yeem xa tuaj.Qhov tseem ceeb ntawm ABF cab kuj tuaj yeem pom.
Txij li ib nrab xyoo dhau los, ua tsaug rau kev loj hlob ntawm 5g, huab AI xam, servers thiab lwm yam kev lag luam, qhov kev thov rau kev ua haujlwm siab (HPC) chips tau nce ntau heev.Ua ke nrog kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam kev xav tau rau cov chaw ua haujlwm hauv tsev / kev lom zem, tsheb thiab lwm yam kev lag luam, qhov kev thov rau CPU, GPU thiab AI chips ntawm lub davhlau ya nyob twg tau nce siab heev, uas kuj tau txhawb nqa qhov kev thov rau ABF carrier boards.Ua ke nrog kev cuam tshuam ntawm hluav taws kub sib tsoo hauv Ibiden Qingliu Hoobkas, lub Hoobkas loj IC cab kuj, thiab Xinxing Electronic Shanying Hoobkas, ABF cov neeg nqa khoom hauv ntiaj teb yog cov khoom tsis txaus.
Thaum Lub Ob Hlis Ntuj xyoo no, muaj xov xwm nyob rau hauv lub khw hais tias ABF carrier daim hlau yog nyob rau hauv tsis txaus, thiab lub sij hawm xa khoom tau ntev li 30 lub lis piam.Nrog rau cov khoom luv luv ntawm ABF carrier phaj, tus nqi kuj tseem nce ntxiv.Cov ntaub ntawv qhia tau hais tias txij li lub quarter thib plaub ntawm xyoo tas los, tus nqi ntawm IC carrier board tau nce ntxiv, suav nrog BT carrier board nce txog 20%, thaum ABF carrier board nce 30% - 50%.
Raws li ABF cov cab kuj muaj peev xwm feem ntau yog nyob rau hauv ob peb lub tuam txhab nyob rau hauv Taiwan, Nyiv thiab Kaus Lim Qab Teb, lawv qhov kev nthuav dav ntawm kev tsim khoom kuj tseem txwv yav dhau los, uas tseem ua rau nws nyuaj rau kev txo qis ntawm ABF cov khoom thauj khoom luv luv. lub sij hawm.
Yog li ntawd, ntau lub ntim thiab kuaj cov tuam txhab pib qhia tias cov neeg siv khoom kawg hloov cov txheej txheem tsim khoom ntawm qee cov qauv los ntawm BGA txheej txheem xav tau ABF cov cab kuj mus rau kab QFN txheej txheem, kom tsis txhob ncua kev xa khoom xa tuaj vim tsis muaj peev xwm teem caij lub peev xwm ntawm ABF cab kuj. .
Cov tuam txhab nqa khoom tau hais tias tam sim no, txhua lub tuam txhab nqa khoom tsis muaj peev xwm ntau qhov chaw los tiv tauj ib qho "queue jumping" xaj nrog tus nqi siab, thiab txhua yam yog tus thawj coj los ntawm cov neeg siv khoom yav dhau los ua kom muaj peev xwm.Tam sim no qee cov neeg siv khoom tau tham txog lub peev xwm thiab 2023,
Yav dhau los, Goldman Sachs kev tshawb fawb daim ntawv qhia kuj qhia tau hais tias txawm hais tias qhov nthuav ABF cab kuj muaj peev xwm ntawm IC cab kuj Nandian nyob rau hauv Kunshan cog nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj loj yuav tsum tau pib nyob rau hauv lub quarter thib ob ntawm lub xyoo no, vim hais tias ncua sij hawm ntawm lub sij hawm xa khoom ntawm cov khoom yuav tsum tau rau ntau lawm. nthuav mus rau 8 ~ 12 lub hlis, lub ntiaj teb ABF cov neeg nqa khoom muaj peev xwm nce los ntawm tsuas yog 10% ~ 15% xyoo no, tab sis kev lag luam xav tau tseem muaj zog, thiab tag nrho cov khoom siv-xav tau sib txawv yuav tsum nyuaj rau kev txo qis los ntawm 2022.
Hauv ob xyoos tom ntej no, nrog kev loj hlob tsis tu ncua ntawm kev thov rau PCs, huab servers thiab AI chips, qhov kev thov rau ABF cov neeg nqa khoom yuav nce ntxiv.Tsis tas li ntawd, kev tsim kho thoob ntiaj teb 5g network tseem yuav siv ntau tus neeg nqa khoom ABF.
Tsis tas li ntawd, nrog rau kev qeeb qeeb ntawm Moore txoj cai, cov tuam txhab nti kuj tau pib siv ntau thiab ntau dua ntawm kev ntim khoom siv tshuab txuas ntxiv los txhawb cov txiaj ntsig kev lag luam ntawm Moore txoj cai.Piv txwv li, Chiplet thev naus laus zis, uas tau tsim muaj zog hauv kev lag luam, yuav tsum muaj ABF cov cab kuj loj dua thiab cov khoom lag luam qis.Nws xav tias yuav txhim kho qhov kev thov rau ABF cab kuj.Raws li kev kwv yees ntawm Tuopu Kev Lag Luam Kev Tshawb Fawb Lub Tsev Haujlwm, qhov nruab nrab txhua hli xav tau ntawm thoob ntiaj teb ABF cov phiaj xwm yuav loj hlob los ntawm 185 lab mus rau 345 lab los ntawm 2019 txog 2023, nrog rau kev loj hlob txhua xyoo ntawm 16.9%.
Cov phaj loj loading factories tau nthuav lawv cov khoom ntau lawm ib tom qab
Raws li qhov tsis txaus ntawm ABF daim hlau thauj khoom tam sim no thiab kev loj hlob tsis tu ncua ntawm kev lag luam xav tau nyob rau yav tom ntej, plaub lub tuam txhab loj IC cov khoom lag luam hauv Taiwan, Xinxing, Nandian, jingshuo thiab Zhending KY, tau tsim cov phiaj xwm nthuav dav rau xyoo no, nrog tag nrho cov peev txheej ntawm ntau tshaj NT $ 65 billion (kwv yees li RMB 15.046 billion) los nqis peev hauv cov chaw tsim khoom hauv thaj av loj thiab Taiwan.Tsis tas li ntawd, Nyiv lub Ibiden thiab Shinko kuj tau ua tiav 180 billion yen thiab 90 billion yen carrier expansion tej yaam num.South Kauslim Samsung hluav taws xob thiab Dade hluav taws xob kuj tseem nthuav dav lawv cov peev txheej.
Ntawm plaub Taiwan nyiaj txiag IC cov chaw tsim khoom, kev siv peev loj tshaj plaws rau xyoo no yog Xinxing, cov nroj tsuag ua haujlwm, uas tau mus txog NT $ 36.221 billion (kwv yees li RMB 8.884 billion), suav txog ntau dua 50% ntawm tag nrho cov peev ntawm plaub cov nroj tsuag, thiab ib qho tseem ceeb nce ntawm 157% piv nrog NT $ 14.087 billion xyoo tas los.Xinxing tau nce nws cov peev txheej plaub zaug rau xyoo no, qhia txog qhov xwm txheej tam sim no uas kev lag luam tsis txaus.Tsis tas li ntawd, Xinxing tau kos npe rau peb lub xyoos kev cog lus ntev nrog qee tus neeg siv khoom kom tsis txhob muaj kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev lag luam xav tau thim rov qab.
Nandian npaj yuav siv tsawg kawg yog NT $ 8 nphom (kwv yees li RMB 1.852 billion) ntawm peev xyoo no, nrog rau txhua xyoo nce ntau dua 9%.Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, nws tseem yuav ua tiav qhov kev nqis peev ntawm NT $ 8 nphom hauv ob xyoos tom ntej txhawm rau nthuav dav ABF pawg thawj coj saib ntawm Taiwan Shulin cog.Nws cia siab tias yuav qhib lub rooj tsav xwm tshiab thauj khoom los ntawm qhov kawg ntawm 2022 txog 2023.
Ua tsaug rau kev txhawb nqa muaj zog ntawm niam txiv lub tuam txhab Heshuo pawg, Jingshuo tau nquag nthuav dav cov peev txheej tsim khoom ntawm ABF cov cab kuj.Qhov kev siv nyiaj xyoo no, suav nrog kev yuav av thiab kev nthuav dav ntau lawm, kwv yees kom tshaj NT $ 10 billion, suav nrog NT $ 4.485 billion hauv kev yuav av thiab vaj tsev hauv Myrica rubra.Ua ke nrog cov peev txheej qub hauv kev yuav khoom thiab cov txheej txheem debottlenecking rau kev nthuav dav ntawm ABF cov cab kuj, tag nrho cov peev txheej yuav tsum tau nce ntau dua 244% piv nrog rau xyoo tas los, Nws tseem yog lub chaw nqa khoom thib ob hauv Taiwan uas nws cov peev txheej siv nyiaj. tau tshaj NT $ 10 billion.
Raws li lub tswv yim ntawm ib-nres kev yuav khoom nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no, Zhending pab pawg tsis tau tsuas yog ua tiav cov txiaj ntsig los ntawm kev lag luam BT uas twb muaj lawm thiab txuas ntxiv ua ob npaug ntawm nws cov peev txheej tsim khoom, tab sis kuj tseem ua tiav cov tswv yim tsib xyoos ntawm tus neeg nqa khoom thiab pib nqis. mus rau ABF carrier.
Thaum Taiwan qhov kev nthuav dav loj ntawm ABF cov neeg nqa khoom muaj peev xwm, Nyiv thiab Kaus Lim Qab Teb cov phiaj xwm loj thauj khoom muaj peev xwm nthuav dav kuj tau nrawm dua tsis ntev los no.
Ibiden, lub nkoj loj loj hauv Nyij Pooj, tau ua tiav cov phiaj xwm nthuav dav ntawm 180 billion yen (kwv yees li 10.606 billion yuan), txhawm rau tsim kom muaj txiaj ntsig ntau dua 250 billion yen hauv 2022, sib npaug li kwv yees li US $ 2.13 billion.Shinko, lwm lub chaw tsim khoom lag luam Nyij Pooj thiab tus xa khoom tseem ceeb ntawm Intel, kuj tau ua tiav cov phiaj xwm nthuav dav ntawm 90 billion yen (kwv yees li 5.303 billion yuan).Nws cia siab tias lub peev xwm thauj khoom yuav nce 40% hauv 2022 thiab cov nyiaj tau los yuav ncav cuag li US $ 1.31 billion.
Tsis tas li ntawd, Kaus Lim Qab Teb Samsung lub cev muaj zog tau nce qhov feem ntawm cov phaj thauj khoom rau ntau tshaj 70% xyoo tas los thiab txuas ntxiv mus nqis peev.Dade electronics, lwm South Kauslim phaj thauj khoom cog, kuj tau hloov nws cov HDI cog rau hauv ABF phaj thauj khoom cog, nrog lub hom phiaj ntawm kev nce cov nyiaj tau los tsawg kawg yog US $ 130 lab hauv 2022.
Post lub sij hawm: Aug-26-2021